Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM

P

Polymarket

6 markets

Market Probability Details

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?

100%

Vol: $83,747,707.071 Ends: Jan 28, 2026 View on Polymarket

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

1%

Vol: $1,541,327.7 Ends: Mar 18, 2026 View on Polymarket

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

0%

Vol: $79,737,414.337 Ends: Jan 28, 2026 View on Polymarket

Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair?

0%

Vol: $14,235,030.352 Ends: Dec 31, 2026 View on Polymarket

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

0%

Vol: $195,775,974.445 Ends: Jan 28, 2026 View on Polymarket

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?

0%

Vol: $223,654,899.107 Ends: Jan 28, 2026 View on Polymarket

M

Metaculus

8 markets

Market Probability Details

Will the community prediction be higher than 12.50% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"?

35%

92 forecasters Ends: Jan 22, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will the community prediction be higher than 13.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?"?

35%

93 forecasters Ends: Dec 25, 2025 View on Metaculus

Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?"?

32%

86 forecasters Ends: Jan 7, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will Jerome Powell cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends? Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?

30%

27 forecasters Ends: Jan 31, 2028 View on Metaculus

Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"?

30%

86 forecasters Ends: Jan 7, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?"?

30%

94 forecasters Ends: Dec 24, 2025 View on Metaculus

Will the community prediction be higher than 12.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?"?

25%

94 forecasters Ends: Jan 23, 2026 View on Metaculus

Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026? ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

20%

760 forecasters Ends: Dec 31, 2026 View on Metaculus