Geopolitics & Conflict
Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM
Avg Probability 20%
Max Spread 63%
Platforms 3
Markets 77
Cross-Platform Comparisons
Same or similar questions found on multiple platforms — click to expand
Kalshi
20 markets Market Probability
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
56%
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
45%
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
44%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2030?
42%
Will Position abolished be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
41%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2029?
37%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
33%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2028?
33%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027?
24%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
22%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ::
11%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ::
10%
Will Yoav Gallant be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ::
9%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ::
9%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ::
8%
Will the U.S. State Department issue a Level 4 warning for Taiwan before Jul 1, 2026?
7%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? ::
6%
Will Ahmad Khatami be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ::
5%
Will Sadeq Amoli Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ::
5%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? ::
5%
Polymarket
20 markets Market Probability
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
89%
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
65%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
54%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
45%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
17%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
14%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
11%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
10%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
8%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?
8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
8%
US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?
4%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?
4%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?
3%
US strikes Iran by January 28, 2026?
3%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?
2%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?
2%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026?
1%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?
1%
Metaculus
20 markets Market Probability
Will the US impose any new import restriction upon China before March 14, 2026? New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?
85%
Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026? Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?
65%
Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027? Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?
65%
Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026? Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?
55%
Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026? Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?
40%
Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026? Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?
40%
Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
40%
Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question "Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?"?
35%
Will the community prediction be higher than 14.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question "Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?"?
35%
Will the community prediction be higher than 31.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question "Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Sudan ceasefire in 2026?"?
35%
Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026? Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?
35%
Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026? Sudan ceasefire in 2026?
33%
Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question "Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "War between India and Pakistan before 2027?"?
30%
Will Saudi Arabia and Israel agree to normalise diplomatic relations during 2026? SA-Israel normalise relations in 2026?
20%
Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026? China attacks/blockades Taiwan in 2026?
13%
Will France and Russia engage in significant direct military conflict before 2031? France-Russia military conflict before 2031
13%
Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026? China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?
N/A
Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026? More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?
N/A
Will China's reported holdings of U.S. Treasuries be below $675 billion for December 2025? China UST holdings below $675B in Dec 2025?
N/A
Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL] Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?
N/A