US Elections & Politics
Data as of Jan 27, 2026, 2:00 PM
Avg Probability 14%
Max Spread 65%
Platforms 3
Markets 131
Cross-Platform Comparisons
Same or similar questions found on multiple platforms — click to expand
Kalshi
20 markets Market Probability
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next Speaker of the House?
74%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
41%
Will President of France be the first to leave office? :: President of France
38%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
34%
Will Bola Tinubu leave office next in this set? :: President of Nigeria
30%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
20%
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
18%
Will Félix Tshisekedi leave office next in this set? :: President of the DRC
16%
Will Emmerson Mnangagwa leave office next in this set? :: President of Zimbabwe
14%
Will Jim Jordan be the next Speaker of the House?
13%
Will Steve Scalise be the next Speaker of the House?
13%
Will William Ruto leave office next in this set? :: President of Kenya
11%
Will Spain vote to leave the EU before 2030?
7%
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
6%
Will Italy vote to leave the EU before 2030?
6%
Will become President of the United States before 2045?
6%
Will Britain Restoring Underlying Values ("BRUV") win a seat in the next U.K. general election?
6%
Will Cyril Ramaphosa leave office next in this set? :: President of South Africa
5%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi leave office next in this set? :: President of Egypt
5%
Will John Mahama leave office next in this set? :: President of Ghana
5%
Polymarket
20 markets Market Probability
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
98%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
62%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
47%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
28%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
12%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?
11%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
3%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
3%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1%
Metaculus
20 markets Market Probability
Will the U.S. Congress still be operating under a continuing resolution (CR) on March 15, 2026? Full-year FY 2026 Appropriations by March 15?
100%
Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026? Will Maduro leave office in 2026?
100%
Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election? Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?
87%
Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election? Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?
75%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election? Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?
66%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York in the 2028 election cycle? Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?
50%
Will a UFC mixed martial arts event occur at the White House in 2026? Will a UFC event occur at the White House in 2026?
50%
Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question "Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?"? Will community prediction rise for "Democrats favored to win 2028 US election on Kalshi?"?
45%
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House until January 3, 2027? Will Johnson remain Speaker until end of 119th Congress?
40%
Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms? Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?
39%
Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question "In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?"?
37%
Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional? Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?
36%
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question "Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Dem House before 2027?"?
35%
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-29 for the Metaculus question "Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?"?
35%
Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026? SCOTUS composition change in 2026?
30%
Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?"?
30%
Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question "Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?"?
28%
Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-21 for the Metaculus question "Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?"?
28%
Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question "Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?"? Will community prediction rise for "Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?"?
25%
Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question "Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?"? Will community prediction rise for "Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?"?
25%